A tropical depression is anticipated to develop in the East Sea around September 12-13, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting. This weather event is expected to combine with cold air and a tropical convergence zone, leading to prolonged heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam.

The convergence zone is currently located between 16-18 degrees north latitude, connecting with a low-pressure area situated at approximately 16.5-17.5 degrees north latitude and 115.5-116.5 degrees east longitude. There is a 70-80% probability that a tropical depression will form in this convergence zone during the specified dates, with a subsequent 30-40% chance of it strengthening into a storm.

If the tropical depression or storm develops, it may combine with the cold air and convergence zone, resulting in widespread heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam until around September 17. The forecast indicates a significant risk of whirlwinds, lightning, flash floods, landslides, and localized flooding.

Two scenarios for the upcoming rainfall have been presented by meteorological authorities. The more likely scenario, with a 60-70% probability, suggests that rain will commence on September 10 and last until September 16, focusing on areas from Ha Tinh to Gia Lai. The alternative scenario, with a 30-40% chance, predicts rainfall starting around September 14 and continuing until September 17, particularly affecting regions from Nghe An to Hue.

This new rainfall forecast comes as many areas in the Central and Central Highlands regions have already experienced significant rainfall in recent days. From 7 PM on September 8 to 8 AM today, some locations recorded over 100 mm of rain, such as Ea Kmut in Dak Lak with 130 mm and Gia Nghia in Lam Dong with 106 mm. Heavy rain has already caused flooding in Khanh Hoa.

As the Central Highlands continues to receive rain today and tonight, rainfall is expected to range from 20-40 mm, with localized areas exceeding 100 mm. From Hue to Da Nang, and eastern provinces from Quang Ngai to Khanh Hoa, rainfall is projected to be between 15-30 mm, with some areas potentially exceeding 80 mm.

On September 10, heavy rain is expected to extend from Thanh Hoa to Hue, the Central Highlands, and the South, with common amounts of 30-60 mm and localized areas exceeding 120 mm. Some locations may experience over 100 mm of rain within three hours. On September 11, similar rainfall patterns are expected, ranging from 40-90 mm, with some areas exceeding 150 mm.

The ongoing heavy rainfall in Central Vietnam is predicted to continue, with complex developments expected. The 2026 storm season is forecasted to have fewer storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea compared to the average of previous years, but the potential for strong storms remains, with complex developments anticipated.

From September to December, the affected areas are expected to shift gradually towards Central Vietnam and the south. In light of the risk of heavy rain, whirlwinds, lightning, flash floods, landslides, and localized flooding, the National Civil Defense Steering Committee has urged localities to closely monitor weather developments and proactively prepare response plans.

Local authorities are required to promptly inform residents, assess risks, and evacuate people from areas at high risk of deep flooding, flash floods, and landslides to safer locations. They are also advised to prepare resources and equipment for rescue and support efforts in the event of natural disasters.

Meanwhile, temperatures in northern Vietnam are gradually decreasing due to the incoming cold air, with scattered rain and thunderstorms expected in the northern region.