Tropical Depression Near the East Sea Strengthening Rapidly

On July 21, 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that a tropical depression, identified as 07d, is likely to strengthen into a storm or tropical depression within 24 hours. The system is currently situated approximately 1,525 km east of the Visayas, outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA forecasts that the tropical depression will enter PAR by the evening of July 21 or the morning of July 22. If it intensifies into a storm or tropical depression, it will be given the local name Kiyapo.

The formation of this tropical depression is consistent with PAGASA's long-term forecast issued on July 20, which indicated that a depression could develop along the eastern boundary of the TCAD area during the week of July 20-26. The system is expected to gradually move northwest towards northern Luzon.

According to PAGASA meteorologist Veronica Torres, the likelihood of 07d developing into a storm or tropical depression is increasing. As of 8 AM on July 21, the depression was located about 1,635 km southeast of Luzon.

Experts from PAGASA noted that once the system enters PAR and approaches the Philippines, it could bring rain to the region. However, the prevailing southwest monsoon continues to dominate the weather across many areas of the Philippines.

While PAGASA has raised the potential for the tropical depression to strengthen, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U.S. Navy maintains that the system, designated as 92W, has a low likelihood of intensifying into a storm or tropical depression within the next 24 hours. The maximum sustained winds of 92W over the Philippine Sea are reported to be around 25-35 km/h.

JTWC analysis indicates that 92W is in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 degrees Celsius), low wind shear, and good divergence aloft. Forecast models agree that 92W will continue to move westward.