On August 13, 2026, global crude oil prices experienced a slight uptick, with Brent crude rising to $88.98 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $83.27 per barrel. This increase comes amid stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in fuel supply.

Despite the rise in crude prices, the average price of refined products has decreased slightly over the past five days. Analysts suggest that domestic fuel prices in Vietnam may see a reduction of 300 to 500 VND per liter during the scheduled price adjustment this afternoon.

Reports indicate that both the US and Iran have not engaged in discussions regarding the extension of the ceasefire, as Iran believes the agreement has not yet commenced. This lack of dialogue has heightened fears that an agreement may not be reached soon. If the situation persists, there is a risk of fuel supply disruptions and a potential escalation of conflict.

Additionally, maritime transport data shows a significant decrease in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial maritime route for oil shipments. Only eight vessels have been recorded recently, compared to the usual 125 to 140 vessels per day before the conflict in the Middle East.

Market analysts have noted that the projected global oil demand for this year has been significantly reduced. According to the latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the global oil demand is now estimated at only 580,000 barrels per day, down from previous forecasts of 780,000 barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also cut its demand forecast by approximately 1.6 million barrels per day, while supply is expected to decrease by around 4.3 million barrels per day.

This decline in demand is attributed to difficulties faced by refineries, particularly in Asia, in securing sufficient crude oil due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has forced them to reduce operational capacity. As a result, the oil market may face a shortfall of approximately 1.27 million barrels per day in 2026.

In summary, while global oil prices have shown a slight increase, domestic fuel prices in Vietnam are expected to adjust downward in light of the recent market developments.