The US dollar has recently surged to its highest level in two weeks, prompting concerns about the exchange rate in Vietnam. As of September 2, the DXY Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, stood at 99.72 points, reflecting an increase from previous sessions. At one point during the trading day, the index peaked at 99.8 points, the highest since mid-August, amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

Experts predict that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this month, further supporting the dollar's upward trajectory. In Vietnam, the State Bank has set the central exchange rate at 25,610 VND per USD, marking an increase of approximately 30 VND per USD over the past two weeks. Commercial banks such as Vietcombank, BIDV, and Agribank are currently trading the dollar around 25,880 VND for buying and 26,260 VND for selling, which is a decrease of about 110 VND per USD compared to two weeks ago.

In the informal market, the dollar price has also remained low, staying below 26,000 VND. Some currency exchange points are quoting the dollar at 25,870 VND for buying and 25,970 VND for selling, maintaining stability in the lower range over the past two weeks.

According to a macroeconomic report from FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management Company, while the pressure from currency speculation has eased, the pressures on the exchange rate and core inflation remain significant. The gap between the banking market and the informal market has narrowed to about 300 VND per USD, indicating a reduction in speculative pressure. The exchange rate at commercial banks remains elevated due to increased imports and a trade balance that has shifted to a deficit.

FIDT experts warn that although overall inflationary pressures have been temporarily alleviated by energy price factors, they have not fully subsided. If the trade deficit continues at high levels, the demand for foreign currency for import payments could exert further pressure on the exchange rate. A weaker VND will increase import costs and may lead to higher prices for goods reliant on imported materials, complicating efforts to reduce core inflation quickly.

Looking ahead to the end of the year, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) forecasts that the VND will face pressure from a recovering USD, especially as the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the third and fourth quarters due to persistent inflationary pressures. The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran may drive demand for safe-haven assets like the USD. However, the exchange rate may experience slight upward pressure due to positive foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and anticipated increases in exports, particularly in the latter half of the year.

Previously, MBS Securities noted that while the VND has maintained relative stability recently, there are still pressures on the exchange rate as the USD is expected to strengthen. Conversely, there is hope that the trade deficit will gradually narrow as the volume of imported raw materials from earlier months converts into goods during the peak production and export season.

MBS predicts that the USD/VND exchange rate will fluctuate between 26,800 and 27,000 VND by the end of the year, reflecting an increase of 2% to 2.8% compared to the beginning of the year. Another important factor, according to experts, is the decline in global gold prices, which may narrow the gap with domestic gold prices and reduce the demand for gold imports through unofficial channels, subsequently decreasing the demand for USD in the informal market and alleviating pressure on the exchange rate.