On July 9, 2026, coffee prices in Vietnam experienced a notable decline, with an average price recorded at 92,300 VND per kilogram, down by 2,500 VND compared to previous updates. In key production areas, the prices have dropped significantly; in Dak Lak, the price fell to 92,200 VND per kilogram, while in Gia Lai, it also decreased to 92,300 VND. Lâm Đồng saw the lowest price at 91,800 VND per kilogram.

This downward trend follows two consecutive sessions of sharp declines, moving away from the previous range of 96,000-97,000 VND per kilogram. The exchange rate of USD to VND was noted at 26,081 VND/USD, reflecting a slight increase of 5 VND.

Globally, coffee prices also faced a significant downturn. Both Robusta on the London market and Arabica on the New York market saw declines. The September 2026 contract for Robusta fell by 131 USD per ton, or 3.38%, settling at 3,741 USD per ton after fluctuating between 3,709 and 3,914 USD during the session. Similarly, the November 2026 contract dropped by 127 USD per ton, while the July 2026 contract decreased by 303 USD per ton, although it had low trading volume due to its proximity to expiration.

On the New York market, the September 2026 Arabica contract decreased by 7.80 US cents per pound, or 2.46%, closing at 309.80 US cents. The December 2026 contract also fell by 7.75 US cents per pound, reflecting a similar downward trend.

The continuous drop in coffee prices indicates a market correction following a previous surge. The simultaneous decline of both Robusta and Arabica suggests that profit-taking pressures remain significant in the international market. In the short term, after rapid price increases, coffee contracts may be vulnerable to technical adjustments. As buying momentum weakens, selling activities could further drive prices down, especially for commodities that have seen substantial increases in recent sessions.

However, the current decline does not imply that supportive factors for prices have vanished. The market continues to closely monitor weather developments in Brazil, particularly as the country approaches the harvest season and the coffee plants begin to bloom. Brazil is the largest producer of Arabica coffee globally, and any weather-related risks, harvest progress, or quality issues could significantly impact Arabica prices on the New York market.

From a global supply-demand perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a decline in the ICO composite price index in May 2026, as the market reacted to improved supply prospects. The outlook for supply is a key factor exerting pressure on prices in the medium term. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts a large coffee crop in Brazil for the 2026-2027 season, driven by a recovery in Arabica production.

Rabobank of the Netherlands also noted that expectations of a large coffee harvest in Brazil could put downward pressure on global prices, as weather conditions are generally favorable for crop development. For Robusta, supply from Vietnam remains a crucial factor. The USDA's report on Vietnam anticipates an increase in coffee production to 32.5 million bags of green bean equivalent in the 2026-2027 season, thanks to expanded production following a period of high coffee prices.

This indicates that the Robusta market may face pressure from improved supply prospects. As the largest producer of Robusta coffee, Vietnam's production and export information significantly influence international Robusta prices. Nevertheless, the coffee market remains susceptible to substantial fluctuations. Stock levels, weather conditions in Brazil, El Niño developments, and selling activities by farmers in major producing countries will continue to shape prices in the near future.