On July 5, 2026, coffee prices in Vietnam saw a slight decline, reversing the previous day’s increase. The average price recorded is 92,900 VND per kilogram, down by 300 VND compared to the previous trading session.

In Dak Lak, the price of coffee fell by 200 VND to 92,800 VND per kilogram, while Gia Lai reported a similar decrease, bringing the purchase price to 92,800 VND per kilogram. In Lam Dong, coffee prices dropped by 300 VND to 92,300 VND per kilogram, marking the lowest price among the surveyed regions. Conversely, Dak Nong maintained the highest purchase price at 93,000 VND per kilogram, unchanged from the last update.

Currently, coffee prices in Vietnam range from 92,300 to 93,000 VND per kilogram, with a price gap of 700 VND between the highest and lowest regions. Despite the reduction, the average price remains above 92,000 VND per kilogram, significantly higher than the sub-90,000 VND levels observed at the end of June.

On the global stage, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange also saw a decline during the weekend trading session, while the Arabica market in New York remained closed for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. The September 2026 contract for Robusta fell by 67 USD per ton, or 1.77%, to 3,716 USD per ton. During the session, prices peaked at 3,783 USD per ton before dropping to a low of 3,675 USD per ton, with a trading volume of 5,306 lots.

Contracts for November 2026 and January and March 2027 also experienced declines, each dropping by 66 USD per ton. The July 2026 contract was recorded at 3,903 USD per ton, down by 67 USD, but the trading volume was limited to just 2 lots as the contract approached its expiration date.

For Arabica, the Intercontinental Exchange in the U.S. did not open on July 3 due to the holiday, so the prices on July 5 reflect the results of the last trading session. The September 2026 contract stood at 301.20 US cents per pound, down by 8.70 cents, or 2.81%. The December 2026 contract was at 286.30 US cents per pound, also down by 8.55 cents.

Market analysts note that coffee prices had recently reached a four-month high before this latest downturn. The decline in Arabica prices is attributed to profit-taking activities ahead of the extended holiday in the U.S. Previously, prices had surged due to concerns over adverse weather conditions in Brazil.

Heavy rainfall in Brazil has disrupted harvesting activities, raising concerns about coffee quality. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, Brazil, recorded 31.3 mm of rain in the week ending June 28, nearly 20 times the historical average for this period.

Minas Gerais is Brazil's largest coffee-producing region, and rain during the harvest season can delay picking, transportation, and drying processes, potentially leading to fruit drop or reduced quality of the beans. The stock of Arabica coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange has decreased to 375,079 bags, the lowest level in over two years, which continues to support prices despite the recent adjustment.

In contrast, Robusta stocks on the European Intercontinental Exchange have increased to 4,053 lots, the highest in nearly three months, putting downward pressure on Robusta prices. The market is also closely monitoring the developments of El Niño, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño from November 2026 to January 2027. This phenomenon could affect rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, as well as production conditions for Robusta in several Asian countries.

However, the specific impacts will depend on the intensity and timing of El Niño in each region. On the bearish side, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Brazil's coffee production for the 2026-2027 season to reach 66.7 million bags. Rabobank of the Netherlands also predicts a continued surplus in the global Arabica market. Meanwhile, the expected increase in Vietnam's coffee production and exports could add more Robusta supply to the market.