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Risks associated with the tourist sector due to global warming

As the planet warms, the tourism industry is becoming increasingly threatened by things like dried-up lakes, mountains without snow, decreasing forests, and oceans without coral.

Located at the foot of the Pyrenees Mountains, Lake Montbel is famous in southwestern France for its turquoise waters and thriving aquatic life. After the dry spell last winter, by March this year, the lake's water level only reached 25% of the maximum filling rate compared to the usual 60% in previous years.

The 570-hectare Lake Montbel, located roughly halfway between Toulouse and Perpignan, was initially used for irrigation but has attracted thousands of visitors yearly for camping, hiking and tourism. Claude Carriere, a rowing coach at a club on the lake, said he felt "heartbroken" because of the drought.

"It's sad to see the lake like that. When my boats became stuck in March, Carriere told Reuters that it appeared more like a muddy desert than anything else.
Contributing nearly 6% to GDP and creating jobs for nearly 290 million people, the world's tourism and travel industry faces countless challenges from extreme temperatures, according to a recent report by HSBC.

The hot weather is affecting people's travel plans. Last month, the European Tourism Commission (ETC) reported that this contributed to a decline in travel intentions among people in the region. Additionally, the popularity of Mediterranean destinations decreased by 10% compared to 2022.

Experts warn that rising temperatures could lead to erratic snowfall and shrinking snowpack areas, shortening skiing and snowboarding seasons. In December 2022, several ski resorts in the Alps closed due to insufficient snowfall.

New results published by the French National Institute for Research on Agriculture, Food and the Environment (INRAE) and Météo-France say more than 2,200 ski resorts in Europe are threatened by climate change. With a temperature increase of 1.5°C, 32% will face a "very high risk" of lack of snow. This number will increase to 98% if the temperature increases by 4°C.

However, according to HSBC, cruise tourism will likely be most affected. Beaches are famous tourist destinations, accounting for nearly 50% of global tourist arrivals. This industry is the backbone of some of the world's least developed economies, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are also the most vulnerable to climate change.

Many famous tourist attractions, such as the Maldives, risk submerging due to rising sea levels. According to NASA, global sea levels have risen 98.5 mm since 1993. The average rate is increasing rapidly, tripling from 1.3 mm per year in 1901-1971 to 3.7 mm per year in 2006-2018.

Even if it follows a low CO2 emissions path, the world will likely lose 53% of its sandy beaches. This will result in a 30% decline in hotel rooms and a 38% decline in tourism revenue by 2100. Potential risks include coastal erosion, flooding of tourism infrastructure, and impacts on resort and hotel companies, tour operators and water sports companies.

Other significant issues include ocean acidification and marine heat waves. They wreak havoc on marine life, affecting landscape features such as coral reefs. The recent marine heat wave that occurred in June along the coast of Queensland (Australia) has raised concerns for the Great Barrier Reef.

Climate change also threatens ecotourism and agriculture by affecting biodiversity and farming. For example, according to the European Commission, some regions may gradually become unsuitable for wine production, with hidden effects on wine tourism.

Meanwhile, drought can lead to a high risk of forest fires. Between 1979 and 2013, global fire-prone areas doubled due to the impact of dry seasons. The increased frequency and spread of wildfires have the potential to impact tourism to national forests negatively. In 2018, an estimated $20 million in tourism revenue was lost in just one month due to wildfires in California, according to research conducted by Visit California.

The heat also makes tourists less likely to participate in activities, affecting revenue. This year's heatwave, which hit 45°C across southern Europe, including Greece, Spain and Sicily, is taking a toll on tourist attractions. For example, the Acropolis was closed, and tourists on the Italian island of Sardinia were forced to stay indoors during the heatwave.

Arriving in Bologna (Italy) in July, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach caused a fierce reaction from officials when commenting on the heat wave in this country. "Resort locations won't have a long-term future if things stay this way. Climate change is devastating southern Europe. An era is coming to an end," he said frankly.
Harald Zeiss, a sustainable tourism expert at Harz University of Applied Sciences in Wernigerode (Germany), predicts that European weather will become hotter and drier, and extreme weather events will happen more in the future. In addition to the negative effects on individuals, such as floods or fires, this threatens the livelihoods of those who rely on tourism for their income and jobs.

Smaller and less prosperous economies may need help to cope with growing cooling demand as tourists seek to escape the heat. Increased demand for air conditioning is also likely to cause energy consumption to increase.

There have been many ideas for dealing with warming damage. A common solution is to increase artificial environments. The INRAE study says the ski shortage is supplemented by artificial snow, but it could be more optimal, too.

Accordingly, the institute forecasts that ski resorts will increase their demand for electricity and water to produce snow. For example, from December to February, the water demand is expected to be 1.2 to 3.5 times higher than the volume used in 1961 - 1990.

With marine tourism, HSBC said artificial reefs are increasingly used in Antigua and Grenada. In Vanuatu, tourism businesses have established marine protected areas to address climate-related risks.

Many tourism-related firms have set goals for becoming carbon neutral by 2050. However, these corporate initiatives to lessen the effects of global warming will have little influence. More importantly, according to the Economist, tourism must adapt to climate change.

In the short term, they need to manage water resources closely, which are becoming increasingly scarce, and have an early warning system for extreme weather events, according to Thomas Ellerbeck, president of TUI tourism group (Germany).

Torsten Kirstges, a tourism expert at the Jade University of Applied Sciences (Germany), said more hotels would install solar-powered air conditioners, water coolers, etc. Visitors can acclimate by going out in the morning and evening to avoid the midday heat.

HSBC assesses that as the impacts of climate change continue to increase, adaptation measures will become increasingly important in protecting vulnerable areas. However, it must be recognized that long-term sustainability depends on a broad-based approach that combines adaptation strategies with a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

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