In a recent report, VNDIRECT has projected that the VN-Index may climb to 1,860 points in October, although the Vietnamese stock market is expected to continue experiencing volatility due to cautious investor sentiment and external uncertainties.

The analysis suggests that if the index closes above 1,800 points by the end of the week, it could confirm a short-term bottom, paving the way for a recovery toward the 1,830-1,860 point range. However, the market is likely to test lower support levels to absorb selling pressure and facilitate portfolio restructuring.

Despite the anticipated fluctuations, VNDIRECT believes that the potential for significant declines is limited, given the positive outlook for corporate profits in the last two quarters of the year. The report indicates that deeper corrections could present accumulation opportunities ahead of a recovery in the fourth quarter.

Investors are advised to consider entering the market when the VN-Index stabilizes around 1,700-1,730 points, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, positive profit outlooks, high liquidity, and the ability to attract institutional capital.

The base scenario, with a 70% probability, suggests that the VN-Index will maintain support in the 1,716-1,730 point range, fluctuating between 1,720 and 1,800 points. The upcoming third-quarter earnings season is expected to be a key support factor.

If the index closes above 1,800 points, it may confirm a short-term bottom, leading to a potential recovery toward 1,830-1,860 points. Conversely, in a less favorable scenario where the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates by an additional 25 basis points in October, the net selling pressure from foreign investors could persist, causing the VN-Index to breach the August lows and fall to the 1,650-1,660 point range.

However, the discounted valuations and the anticipated third-quarter profit outlook are expected to limit the market's potential for deeper declines.

For October, VNDIRECT has selected three stocks: VPB, FRT, and NT2. VPB is expected to benefit from high credit growth, projected at around 35% for 2026, driven by corporate clients, SMEs, and a recovery in personal lending. Although the net interest margin may face pressure from rising funding costs, the bank is expected to continue benefiting from diverse financial income growth.

FRT is anticipated to gain from the increasing consumer preference for reputable retail chains and transparent product sourcing. Long Chau is expected to remain a key growth driver due to its leading position, scale advantages, and operational capabilities, while FPT Shop is showing positive results following its restructuring process.

For NT2, the outlook is supported by less favorable hydrological conditions amid the prolonged El Niño, thus enhancing the role of gas-fired power. Additionally, improved gas supply in the Southeast region and substantial deposits provide the company with additional financial resources in a high-interest-rate environment.