The VN-Index's recovery at the end of July has improved investor sentiment, but experts caution that it may not confirm a sustainable upward trend. Analysts suggest that the flow of capital, liquidity, and external factors like the Federal Reserve's policies will significantly influence the VN-Index's trajectory in August.

After the VN-Index experienced a rebound from a short-term low, experts are divided on whether the market is entering a medium-term bottom or if this is just a technical rebound. Investors are advised to monitor specific signals to mitigate the risk of a "bull trap."

Nguyen The Minh, Director of the Investment Banking Division at An Binh Securities, believes the market has entered a neutral short-term trend and may continue to rise in the coming week. He identifies the 1,640-point level as a strong support area for the VN-Index, although the market remains in a medium-term downtrend, making it premature to declare a medium-term bottom.

Nguyen Anh Khoa, Director of Analysis at Agriseco Securities, views the current recovery as a short-term technical rebound without sufficient confirmation of a medium-term bottom. He warns that the market could experience fluctuations or reversals if demand weakens. As the VN-Index approaches the resistance level around 1,770 points, investors should watch the performance of large-cap stocks and liquidity. If leading stocks face profit-taking pressure while liquidity decreases, the risk of losing momentum and forming a bull trap increases.

Huynh Anh Huy, Industry Analysis Director at Kafi Securities, notes that recent developments show positive signals but are not enough to confirm a medium-term bottom. The VN-Index closed at 1,735.78 points, marking a 2.95% increase, but liquidity decreased during this recovery phase, which could signal a potential bull trap.

Looking ahead to August, the VN-Index faces both opportunities and challenges. Minh expects liquidity to recover this month, driven by low market valuations and easing short-term interest rates. However, geopolitical risks and tightening monetary policies remain significant challenges.

Khoa anticipates a shift in market focus towards evaluating individual company prospects as Q2 financial reports are released. Stocks with genuine growth potential and reasonable valuations are likely to attract capital, while those that have risen without corresponding results may face corrections.

Overall, the market's performance in August will hinge on four main factors: corporate earnings, domestic policy impacts, external trade risks, and the strength of capital flows. Improved liquidity and a notable return of foreign investment will be crucial for supporting recovery trends, while defensive sentiment amid a lack of new supporting information could lead to a cautious market outlook.