A major event is anticipated to influence Vietnam's stock market, prompting analysts from Viet Securities Company (VFS) to outline two potential scenarios for the VN-Index this September. Following a robust recovery in August, the market enters September with a more optimistic outlook, yet it faces critical resistance levels.

According to VFS, the VN-Index has regained important moving averages and is maintaining a bullish structure. However, profit-taking pressure may increase as the index approaches the resistance zone of 1,850-1,870 points. The recent market recovery has been largely driven by domestic capital inflows, with liquidity showing significant improvement during rising sessions. Additionally, the net selling pressure from foreign investors has decreased compared to previous periods, which is seen as a supportive signal for the market as it enters September.

Technically, the VN-Index has successfully reclaimed its MA10, MA20, MA50, and MA200 levels. The MACD has moved above the zero threshold, while the RSI and MFI indicators remain in positive territory, suggesting improving price momentum and capital flow. Nevertheless, the 1,850-1,870 point range remains a notable resistance level following the recent strong rally.

In terms of valuation, the VN-Index's P/E ratio currently stands at approximately 12.46 times, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 15.32 times. This indicates that there is still room for valuation growth, although the short-term potential for the index will depend heavily on the improvement of capital flows and market breadth.

VFS has identified two key factors that will shape the market in September: the VN-Index's ability to surpass the 1,850-1,870 point range and the behavior of foreign capital around the time of the FTSE Russell GEIS restructuring, which is set to take effect on September 21.

In a positive scenario, if the VN-Index convincingly breaks through the 1,850-1,870 point range with improved liquidity and market breadth, it could aim for the peak zone of 1,900-1,930 points. The return of foreign capital, coupled with positive expectations for third-quarter earnings, would support this scenario.

Conversely, profit-taking pressure may emerge as the index approaches strong resistance levels. In such a case, the VN-Index could retreat to test the 1,780-1,815 point range before establishing a new movement phase. VFS believes that any adjustments, if they occur, will present opportunities to selectively invest in stocks with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations.

For investors, VFS recommends avoiding chasing after the recent strong rally. It suggests maintaining a stock portfolio weight of 40-60%, prioritizing leading stocks that maintain their price levels, show improved liquidity, and have positive earnings results. New investments should be made gradually, with significant increases in portfolio weight only if the VN-Index convincingly surpasses the 1,850-1,870 point range, confirmed by liquidity.