The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has announced a revised forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth, projecting it to reach 7.8% this year. This adjustment is attributed to strong domestic consumption and a stable influx of foreign direct investment (FDI). In its report released on September 23, the ADB noted that Vietnam's economy maintained robust growth across all sectors in the first half of the year, with the gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 8.2%, surpassing the 7.5% growth recorded in the same period in 2025.

The ADB's latest forecast is approximately 0.6 percentage points higher than its previous report issued in April. By the end of August, the total registered FDI in Vietnam was estimated at nearly $40.6 billion, marking an increase of over 55% compared to the same period last year. Among this, new registered capital reached nearly $22 billion, reflecting a significant increase of approximately 97%.

Despite these positive indicators, the actual purchasing power within the economy has not seen a substantial improvement. The total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue for the first eight months of the year increased by over 13% compared to the previous year. However, when adjusted for inflation, this figure drops to only 7.6%, which is just 0.1% higher than the same period in 2025. These data suggest that economic growth is primarily driven by investment, according to the ADB.

Additionally, tax reduction measures, such as a 2% cut in VAT until the end of the year, are expected to help sustain domestic consumption. The ADB highlighted that FDI remains a key driver of GDP, supported by public investment and private sector contributions to large infrastructure projects. As of early September, over 513.3 trillion VND of public investment had been disbursed, accounting for 50.2% of the annual plan.

Moreover, major domestic corporations are playing an increasingly vital role in urban and infrastructure development, with significant funding anticipated from banks. The ADB believes this could provide a strong impetus for the construction sector and short-term growth. However, it also warns that increased reliance on bank loans could elevate liquidity risks, maturity mismatches, and credit concentration.

Consequently, the ability to maintain growth moving forward will depend on whether large infrastructure projects can yield higher productivity and generate sufficient cash flow to service related debts. Furthermore, the economy faces challenges such as global trade instability, geopolitical tensions, and rising energy costs, which could pose additional risks to exports, investments, and inflation.

From these factors, the ADB forecasts Vietnam's inflation rate for this year to be around 4.3%, before decreasing to 4% by 2027. The economic growth rate for next year is projected to be approximately 7.6%. Last month, several international organizations also raised their GDP forecasts for Vietnam. UOB Bank estimated that GDP could increase by 8.5% in 2026, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a growth rate of 7.5%. Standard Chartered has raised its GDP growth forecast to 9.5%, with an expectation of reaching 11% in the following year.