On July 7, 2026, fuel prices in Vietnam have dropped significantly, reflecting a broader trend observed over the past month. This decrease brings prices down to levels not seen since before the outbreak of conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Globally, oil prices have been fluctuating notably. As of the end of the previous trading session, both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices recorded a decrease of approximately 0.2%. However, in the morning session, both types of oil experienced a slight rebound, with WTI rising by 0.90% and Brent by 0.47% as of 9:14 AM local time.

Analysts attribute the recent decline in oil prices to the gradual departure of oil tankers that were previously stranded due to the ongoing conflicts, which has improved supply conditions in the market. Investors are closely monitoring negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding maritime activities in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the speed of oil export recovery from Gulf countries.

Despite a ceasefire lasting 60 days aimed at facilitating diplomatic efforts following airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel, indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran concluded last week without significant progress.

In terms of supply, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) increased its production in June to over 3.8 million barrels per day, nearing record levels after leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), thus no longer bound by production quotas. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil sold to Asian customers in August by more than $1.5 per barrel compared to the average of Oman/Dubai crude.

These moves indicate that Gulf producers are signaling a readiness to compete more aggressively for market share, raising concerns about a potential oil price war. Previously, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase production quotas by an additional 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, following similar increases in June and July. However, much of this increase has not yet materialized due to transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict, preventing key producers like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq from raising output as planned.

Experts believe that the continued push by exporting countries to sell oil amid declining prices will likely cloud the market's short-term recovery prospects. However, lower prices are expected to stimulate consumption demand, potentially providing support for the market in the coming months.

As for domestic prices, on July 7, retail fuel prices in Vietnam were adjusted by Petrolimex according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade and Ministry of Finance's regulations. The adjustments are as follows:

• Petrolimex Retail Prices:
• E10 RON 95-III: 50 VND/liter discount
• E5 RON 92-II: 0 VND/liter discount
• Diesel 0.05S-II: 0 VND/liter discount
• Diesel 0.001S-V: 0 VND/liter discount

Looking ahead, a representative from a fuel trading company forecasts that in the next price adjustment period, retail fuel prices may see mixed changes, with E10 expected to decrease by around 290 VND/liter, E5 RON 92-II by approximately 470 VND/liter, and Diesel prices may increase by about 570 VND/liter.

It is important to note that these fuel prices are subject to change based on market developments.