Global gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below the $4,100 per ounce mark. This decline comes as geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a shift in market sentiment regarding precious metals. As of the opening of trading on June 24, the price of SJC gold in Vietnam was quoted at 144-147 million VND per tael (buy-sell), remaining unchanged from the previous day's closing price. The difference between buying and selling prices stands at 3 million VND per tael, following a decrease of 1 million VND per tael in the previous session.

According to Kitco, the global gold price this morning reached $4,087 per ounce, representing a loss of over $35 compared to earlier, officially breaking below the $4,100 threshold. The market's downturn is attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar, which has risen to its highest level in a year, driven by expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). These expectations have overshadowed the recent decrease in oil prices as negotiations between the US and Iran continue.

Tim Waterer, a senior market analyst at KCM Trade, noted that while gold prices benefited somewhat from the decline in oil prices this week, they did not receive support from the rising US dollar, which continues to appreciate in light of anticipated Fed interest rate hikes. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders currently estimate an 88% probability of an interest rate increase in December, up from 61% before the Fed's recent meeting. This suggests that investors are anticipating a tighter monetary policy under the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Analysts at Saxo Bank have pointed out that energy prices will remain a key factor in the short term for the precious metals market. Meanwhile, commodity strategists at Morgan Stanley have stated that without a significant recovery in capital inflows into ETF funds, gold will struggle to reach its price target of $5,200 per ounce in the second half of 2026. In a recent research report, analysts Amy Gower and Martijn Rats mentioned that while central bank gold purchases may continue regardless of market conditions, ETF capital flows are more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.

Investors maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, anticipating that easing tensions in the Middle East and falling oil prices will help reduce inflation expectations. However, analysts caution that the recent hawkish tone from the Fed has raised expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for a longer period. Morgan Stanley has shared data showing that prolonged high interest rate expectations have pushed real yields on 10-year US government bonds significantly higher than in February, contributing to recent outflows from gold ETF funds and the subsequent decline in gold prices.

Currently, investors are awaiting data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the US, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, scheduled for release on June 25, to gain further insight into monetary policy direction. The USD Index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 101.17 points, marking its highest level since May 2025. As explained by Tommy von Bromsen, a currency strategist at Handelsbanken, the current strength of the dollar reflects expectations of higher interest rates, supported by ongoing instability in the Middle East and other uncertainties.

This morning, the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank was set at 25,189 VND, an increase of 6 VND from the beginning of the week. With a trading band of 5%, commercial banks are allowed to trade USD within the range of 23,929.55 to 26,448.45 VND/USD. Surveys at commercial banks indicate slight fluctuations in the USD exchange rate in the latest trading session, with common buying prices around 26,092-26,122 VND/USD, while selling prices were listed at 26,442 VND/USD. Compared to the previous session, many banks adjusted selling prices upward by 2 VND, while buying prices varied, with some banks keeping them unchanged or slightly decreasing. Meanwhile, the USD exchange rate in the informal market was commonly around 26,750-26,780 VND/USD, significantly exceeding the rates listed at commercial banks.