During a forecasting conference on meteorological conditions for 2026, held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, experts highlighted the necessity for tailored risk maps to help communities prepare for the anticipated strong El Niño. They noted that existing forecasts primarily emphasize climate indices and probabilities, while local populations require clear assessments of how El Niño will impact their specific regions and industries.

Professor Tran Thuc, President of the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Association, pointed out that the public is less concerned about the strength or probability of El Niño and more interested in understanding the risks they will face. He stressed the importance of knowing which crops might be affected, whether their water supply will be threatened, and what preparations they should undertake now.

Thuc argued that forecasting efforts should shift from merely describing climate phenomena to predicting their impacts. Instead of providing academic information, forecasts should answer how extreme weather will affect people's lives and livelihoods. For instance, a durian farmer in Dong Thap would want to know when saline intrusion might occur and how long it might last. Residents in Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan are concerned about potential water shortages in the upcoming dry season, while farmers in the Central Highlands need specific information regarding water availability for coffee and pepper crops.

He emphasized that a one-size-fits-all El Niño scenario is inadequate, as each region will experience different impacts. Historical data from the severe El Niño event of 2015-2016 showed that the Mekong Delta faced the worst drought and saline intrusion in decades, leaving hundreds of thousands without drinking water and damaging vast areas of crops. Meanwhile, some northern regions recorded heavy rainfall.

Agreeing with this perspective, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Le Cong Thanh noted that El Niño does not guarantee drought everywhere. During the strong El Niño of 2015, Quang Ninh still experienced a historic flood that caused significant damage. This illustrates that extreme weather events can defy established patterns, especially amid increasing climate volatility.

Thanh added that the global climate system is shifting towards more extreme conditions due to climate change. Therefore, the current challenge lies not only in improving forecasting accuracy but also in effectively translating scientific information into management decisions and specific adaptation actions.

Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy Director of the Meteorological and Hydrological Bureau, stated that collaboration among various specialized agencies is essential. While the meteorological agency is responsible for forecasting weather and climate trends, departments focused on agriculture, livestock, irrigation, and water resources must also assess impacts, develop risk scenarios, and propose adaptive solutions for their sectors.

Cuong emphasized that only by connecting data and expertise from multiple fields can detailed risk maps be created to support management efforts and help communities proactively adapt. At the conference, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development tasked the Meteorological and Hydrological Bureau with urgently preparing a report on the impacts and risks of El Niño to present to the government in July. This report must identify high-risk areas, vulnerable sectors, and provide specific action recommendations for each region and industry.