On September 15, 2026, Yulia Mendel, the former press secretary for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, reported that the population in territories controlled by Kyiv has decreased to approximately 20-25 million. This alarming statistic reflects a significant demographic crisis as the nation grapples with the repercussions of prolonged conflict.

In a recent article published in The Spectator, Mendel highlighted that Ukraine has lost over half of its population since gaining independence from the Soviet Union 35 years ago. The current estimate indicates that about half of the remaining population is of retirement age, raising concerns about the future workforce and economic stability.

Mendel noted that emigration continues to be a pressing issue, with many Ukrainians seeking better educational and healthcare opportunities abroad for their children. This trend exacerbates the demographic decline, as the mortality rate is estimated to be four times higher than the birth rate.

The situation is further complicated by the lack of recent population census data, making it difficult to ascertain the true scale of the demographic changes due to migration, territorial shifts, and the ongoing conflict. The Ukrainian government has struggled to maintain accurate population figures amidst these challenges.

Mendel served as Zelensky's press secretary from 2019 to 2021 and has since transitioned to journalism, focusing on the political and social dynamics within Ukraine. Her insights into the demographic challenges facing the country underscore the urgent need for solutions to address the population crisis.

As Ukraine prepares for a harsh winter, the implications of this population decline could have lasting effects on the nation’s recovery and resilience in the face of ongoing adversities.