The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning regarding the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon, predicting that it will reach its peak in December 2026. This El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest recorded since at least 1950, with the potential to persist until 2027.

According to the WMO, the current El Niño is likely to cause above-average temperatures across much of the globe in the coming months. While not every region will experience higher temperatures daily, there is a clear seasonal signal indicating an increased likelihood of extreme heat episodes and related impacts. The organization emphasized that this phenomenon could lead to significant weather changes, including both droughts and floods in various regions.

Predictions suggest that ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach record levels between October and December, with an anticipated increase of up to 3.7 degrees Celsius. This forecast surpasses the previous record increase of 2.6 degrees, observed during a prior El Niño event from November 2015 to January 2016. The rapid intensification of the current phenomenon is evident, with temperature anomalies already recorded at 1.6 degrees in June and 2.5 degrees in August.

The WMO also forecasts changes in precipitation patterns worldwide. Increased rainfall is expected in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Horn of Africa, parts of Central and Eastern Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, some areas of North America, and the southeastern parts of South America. Conversely, regions such as the western Pacific, equatorial Atlantic, Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, and northwestern South America may experience below-normal rainfall.

In delivering these findings, the WMO highlighted that their forecasts outline seasonal trends and probabilities, which do not replace national and local weather forecasts. The aim is to provide information as early as possible to help countries and sectors prepare for the risks associated with extreme temperatures, droughts, and floods.