UN Warns of Intensifying El Niño Before December Peak

Geneva – The United Nations has issued a warning that the El Niño phenomenon will intensify further before reaching its "peak" in December. This event could be one of the strongest recorded since at least 1950, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The WMO stated in its monthly climate bulletin that El Niño is likely to lead to above-average temperatures across much of the planet, altering precipitation patterns and increasing the risk of droughts and floods in various regions. The phenomenon, characterized by the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, can trigger changes in winds, pressure, and precipitation patterns worldwide.

Typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting between nine to twelve months, El Niño's effects are expected to be compounded by ongoing climate change driven by human activities. Celeste Saulo, the director of the WMO, emphasized that this year's El Niño could be unprecedented, with the probability of it persisting until February 2027 nearly at 100%.

The WMO predicts that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific will rise to unprecedented levels during October, November, and December 2026. The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in this region has already increased from 1.6 °C above normal in June to 2.5 °C in August, with projections suggesting it could reach approximately 3.7 °C above normal by the end of the year.

This would mark the highest anomaly recorded since observations began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 °C set during the 2015-2016 El Niño event. The current El Niño is already having severe impacts in regions such as Central America, where drought conditions are affecting agriculture and livestock.

As the world grapples with the implications of this intensifying phenomenon, it is clear that El Niño will play a significant role in shaping global weather patterns and impacting economies, ecosystems, and communities worldwide.