In a notable development, Russia has lost its naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time since 2013. According to the open-source intelligence project Russian Forces Spotter, there are currently no Russian warships in the region, which has been a consistent area of naval activity for Moscow over the past decade.

This abrupt change is largely attributed to the closure of the Turkish straits to Russian military vessels since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. As a result, the Black Sea Fleet has faced significant restrictions on its ability to maneuver freely, disrupting the continuity of its naval operations in the Mediterranean.

Furthermore, Russia's naval logistics base at Tartus, Syria, has transitioned into a limited logistical hub rather than serving as a permanent naval base. Analysts suggest that the current deployments of Russian naval forces appear to be sporadic rather than continuous, raising questions about whether Russia can restore its previous level of presence in the Mediterranean.

Mark Douglas, an expert from Starboard Maritime Intelligence, noted that Russian ships now have to travel from Northern Europe to reach the Mediterranean and must negotiate with various countries for logistical support. This situation complicates Russia's naval operations, especially as any support for Russia could negatively impact relations with European nations.

Moreover, recent incidents, such as attacks on Russian vessels in St. Petersburg, have forced Russia to divert naval resources to escort President Vladimir Putin's yacht in the northern region. Other ships have been busy escorting Russian vessels through waters near the UK, sometimes requiring warning shots to be fired.

Despite the current absence of Russian warships, experts believe this situation may not be permanent. Douglas emphasized that it is likely Russian ships will return to the Mediterranean, stating, "The question is not if they will return, but when they will do so." Following the collapse of the Syrian government in December 2024, Russia began withdrawing military forces and equipment from Syria, with a significant amount of military assets being transported away from the Tartus naval base.

As of January, reports indicated that Russia was also withdrawing troops from the Qamishli airbase in northeastern Syria, moving some to the Hmeimim airbase while returning others to Russia. Concurrently, Moscow is exploring the possibility of converting the Tartus port for commercial use. Recent news revealed that the Syrian company Rus Line is preparing to construct a logistics center at the Tartus port for the transit of Russian goods, including grain, coal, wood, and steel, while maintaining some military functions.