The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the monsoon is expected to maintain a robust presence across India until mid-July, providing crucial rainfall that will benefit kharif sowing. According to the extended-range outlook for June 25 to July 1, rainfall is anticipated to be normal to above normal in parts of the South Peninsula and North-East India, while other regions may experience below-normal precipitation.

As the monsoon progresses, conditions are favorable for its advance into several areas, including parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, within the next few days. The IMD forecasts a significant improvement in rainfall from July 2 to July 8, with expectations of widespread precipitation across almost the entire country. This surge in rainfall is crucial as it aligns with the agricultural calendar, particularly for kharif crops.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over the Konkan-Mumbai region and Goa, while Coastal Karnataka and Kerala are expected to receive less intense but widespread rain. However, eastern Tamil Nadu, north Gujarat, and north-west Rajasthan may see below-normal rainfall during this period.

Looking ahead, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that the monsoon will remain vigorous from June 29 to July 6, particularly over Central India, including Odisha, Vidarbha, and parts of Maharashtra. The ECMWF also indicates that rainfall may continue to be normal to above normal from July 6 to July 13 in several northern and western states.

Despite the promising outlook for early July, forecasts suggest a potential weakening of the monsoon after mid-July. Projections indicate that rainfall deficits could emerge across the western half of the country, although East India may still experience near-normal rainfall. This shift could pose challenges for agriculture, particularly in regions reliant on consistent monsoon patterns.