The USD exchange rate in Vietnam's black market has experienced a sharp decline, with the buying price falling to approximately 26,000 VND. This drop is notable as it is lower than the rates offered by banks, where the buying price for USD is around 26,100 VND, and the selling price ranges from 26,330 to 26,400 VND. Compared to the beginning of the week, the USD has decreased by about 250 VND in the black market, marking the most significant adjustment in the past month.

In total, the USD has lost around 2,000 VND, or 7%, since reaching a record high of 28,150 VND earlier in March. The black market rates continue to fluctuate in contrast to the banking sector, where major banks have maintained their buying and selling prices or made slight adjustments of a few dozen VND compared to the previous day. For instance, Vietcombank's buying price is 26,110 VND and the selling price is 26,490 VND per USD, while Vietinbank has adjusted to 26,133 VND for buying and 26,513 VND for selling.

This means that for those looking to exchange USD for VND, transactions at banks offer slightly better rates than the black market, although the difference is not substantial. Conversely, for purchasing USD, the black market currently provides more favorable rates than banks.

Additionally, the black market USD exchange rate is moving inversely to the central exchange rate, which the State Bank of Vietnam announced has risen to 25,260 VND, the highest level since late August 2025. The black market rates are typically influenced by real market supply and demand, unlike the central exchange rate, which is affected by macroeconomic balances and the monetary policy management of the State Bank.

The recent downward trend in the black market is largely attributed to a cooling off of speculative behavior among traders. According to Associate Professor Nguyen Quoc Anh, a senior lecturer at the Banking Department of the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City, the public's legal risk aversion towards the informal market is significantly impacting the black market exchange rate.

Furthermore, Ly Thi Hien, Head of Personal Client Analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, noted that fluctuations in the gold market are also contributing to the decline in the USD black market rate. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have dropped by 2-4.5% domestically and globally, which may continue to decline. This has led to a diminishing desire among the public to hold USD outside the banking system, thereby reducing short-term exchange rate pressures.

However, experts predict that there is little room for further declines, as the black market rate has now aligned with or fallen below the selling rates at commercial banks.