Gold prices have recently seen a significant increase, rising over 2% and breaking a streak of four consecutive weeks of decline. This shift has led many experts to predict that gold will continue its upward trend, fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease pressure on interest rates and a weakening US dollar.

At the end of the trading week from June 29 to July 4, the SJC gold price was quoted at 148.4-151.4 million VND per tael for buying and selling. Meanwhile, global gold prices closed the week at 4,171 USD per ounce, marking a weekly increase of over 2%. The week began with gold trading at 4,079.50 USD per ounce, but initial gains quickly faded as prices retested the support level of 4,000 USD during the first two sessions of the week.

Gold prices dropped to a weekly low of 3,941.87 USD before buying pressure returned. The recovery was supported by an ADP report indicating that the US private sector added only 98,000 jobs in June. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh noted that inflation risks had cooled but did not provide clear signals regarding future interest rate moves.

Gold prices swiftly climbed back above the 4,100 USD mark as traders reduced expectations for an imminent interest rate hike by the Fed, adjusting their positions ahead of the June non-farm payroll report, which was released earlier than usual on Thursday. The job report caused significant volatility, revealing that the US economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained around 4.2%. This data weakened the US dollar and lowered Treasury yields, creating favorable conditions for gold prices to extend their gains after four consecutive weeks of decline.

A Kitco survey of 16 experts showed that 11 (69%) expected gold prices to rise, while 2 (13%) anticipated a decline, and 3 (19%) predicted prices would remain stable. In a separate survey of 183 individual investors, 99 (54%) expected prices to increase, while 45 (25%) forecasted a decrease, and 39 (21%) believed gold would enter a consolidation phase.

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, expressed optimism about gold's outlook for the coming week, noting that after three months of continuous decline, gold is signaling a return to stability. Although tensions have eased, this remains a disadvantage for the precious metal. Additionally, concerns about the Fed's potential interest rate hikes have diminished, and lower energy prices along with weak US employment data could support a short-term recovery in gold prices.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, also forecasted a rise in gold prices, citing ongoing gold purchases by central banks as a supportive factor for the market. Darin Newsom, a senior market analyst at Barchart.com, leaned towards a bullish scenario for gold prices, indicating that the August futures contracts are forming upward momentum on the daily chart, which could attract more buying interest.

Conversely, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, suggested that the recent rise in gold prices following the job report lacks convincing strength. He pointed out that the US job growth in June fell short of expectations, and previous months' data were significantly revised downward, prompting the market to reassess the Fed's monetary policy outlook. He referenced Bank of America's forecast of three potential interest rate hikes by the Fed by the end of the year as a relatively pessimistic scenario. Grady noted that if the US continues to release weak job reports, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in 2026 could be entirely ruled out. He also mentioned that the recent surge in gold prices was primarily driven by algorithmic trading systems and suggested that prices might continue to adjust in the short term, with the possibility of breaching support levels at 4,000 USD and 3,900 USD per ounce. Nevertheless, he anticipated buying interest would return if prices fell back to around 3,750 USD per ounce.