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Rice export: Big chance and risk prognosis

After India, a number of countries such as Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) banned rice exports, making the global rice market wobble. This is considered a great opportunity for Vietnam's rice exports, however, businesses believe that the State needs to have timely and appropriate policies, while taking advantage of the opportunity but must ensure the stability of the situation.

Also read: Ample room for rice exports

Rice source for export

The leader of a business with decades of experience in the rice industry in the Mekong Delta said that India's move to ban rice exports has turned the world market upside down. If the world's No. 1 exporting country maintains this policy for a long time, it will greatly affect the situation of rice exports in general. Recently, Russia and the UAE also banned rice exports to take care of the domestic market, although these are not the leading rice exporting countries, but they also contributed to making the situation more tense.

According to this official, the forecast of international organizations shows that the world supply situation is limited and there is a shortage of output, so countries that consume a lot of rice take advantage of buying and hoarding. This brings opportunities for Vietnam, farmers to have high profits because rice is sold at a good price; The group of enterprises that buy rice directly for milling is also beneficial. However, for a group of large exporters, they have not really benefited, because they already have a contract, so they have to sell at the signed contract price, much lower than the current price.

Referring to the story of ensuring food security in the country, the representative of this enterprise said: "I agree with the Department of Crop Production, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development that Vietnam has no shortage of rice, so the ban on rice export should not be applied because the ban will make it worse. make the situation more chaotic. Now is how to sell rice, not worry about the market. Currently, enterprises may suffer losses, but they will recover, the important thing is to maintain stability and benefits for rice growers."

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Nhut - General Director of Hoang Minh Nhat Joint Stock Company, to buy rice, businesses need to borrow money. Banks themselves also want to lend, but they have to evaluate whether the business has an effective business plan or not. If the ability to recover capital is not available, the bank will certainly not lend. Any enterprise with a good plan, effective and high repayment capacity, there is no shortage of active banks to invite.

Read more: Vietnam to export 7 million tons of rice this year

However, the pressure of interest rates also makes businesses afraid, so it is necessary to have a mechanism to support businesses through the fact that banks can consider the conditions for unsecured loans. In the meantime, if there is a safer solution, both to ensure the interests of the bank and to help businesses access capital widely, it is very necessary. This is a bottleneck that needs to be removed to help businesses have the opportunity to expand their production and business scale…

Contract cancellation occurs

In a report sent to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), a leading rice exporter, said that after India's ban on rice exports, world rice export prices (including Vietnam) Nam) has increased by more than 100 USD/ton, and may even increase by 200 USD/ton if this ban of India is prolonged.

In that context, the situation of buying and selling occurred, leading to the "cancellation of the contract", not respecting the agreed contracts. This makes rice processing enterprises and factories not receive the fixed amount of goods. Meanwhile, there is also a situation where farmers and traders leave deposits to sell outside at higher prices.

According to the representative of this enterprise, due to the characteristics of the rice industry in particular and agricultural products in general, which must be sold before the crop, exporters often do not have enough financial resources to prepare enough goods (usually meeting 50-60% of orders). signed goods). While rice is a commodity that requires a lot of time and effort to dry, mill and store. Therefore, when the price increases every day, businesses often encounter the situation of buying in time.

When prices fluctuate so quickly like today, suppliers often have to suffer losses to deliver closed orders or cancel contracts. “The supply chain of the rice industry has been broken from the very first stage, making the whole industry unsustainable, affecting the national reputation because enterprises are unable to perform contracts, there may be disputes. disputes and lawsuits in the near future," said this enterprise.

According to enterprises, while the demand for rice is high, the State should consider regulating the balanced export output for each month and each quarter. “For example, from now to the end of the year, exporting about 2 million tons of rice will export 400,000 tons every month, up to that level, if there is a new contract, it will be moved to next month, and data information must be made public. . This policy will both benefit domestic food security and benefit farmers and businesses because the price will be stable at a high level," suggested a leader of a rice export enterprise in Can Tho.

However, according to this position, there should be control, not to let prices push up too high because it can increase inflation, affecting the poor. Therefore, the State needs to have a timely and appropriate response policy, both for businesses to take advantage of opportunities and benefit rice growers. At that time, the output is maintained stably, meeting for export and ensuring domestic demand.

Also read: Vietnam’s rice export prices exceed Thailand’s

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