GDP growth to reach 5.49 pct. in normal scenario in 2021: Economics Institute
Vietnam’s 2021 GDP growth is projected at 5.49 percent in the normal scenario, 6.9 percent if the current
According to the Institute of Development Strategy, Ministry of Planning and Investment, in the planning period 2021 - 2030, the Southeast must be a dynamic development region, an economic, financial, trade, education and training, development of high-quality human resources, science - technology, innovation, and digital transformation, leading the country and Southeast Asia, playing an important role in development cooperation with Other economic zones…
Accordingly, the Institute of Development Strategy - a consulting agency based on assumptions and input variables such as economic growth, trade and investment; demographic changes; Social Issues; Climate Change; The Fourth Industrial Revolution; factors from the socioeconomic-environmental context of Vietnam and the internal factors of the Southeast region to forecast 3 growth scenarios.
Accordingly, in scenario 1 - low scenario, the GRDP growth rate is forecasted to average 4.92%/year in 2021 - 2025; average rate of 7.18%/year in 2026 - 2030. In the whole period of 2021 - 2030, an average of 6.04%/year. 2031 - 2050, the growth rate is expected to reach about 6.85 %/year.
From 2021 to 2030, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth will reach 46.8%, a labor productivity growth average of 5.4 %/year.
It is forecasted that by 2025, per capita income will reach about 200 million VND, equivalent to 8,200 USD/person; by 2030, it will reach about 315 million VND, equivalent to 11,800 USD; by 2050 to reach 38,500 USD. Investment capital is expected to be about 11.4 million billion VND in 2021 - 2030, 2.1 times higher than 2011 - 2020. The ratio of development investment capital to GRDP at current prices is about 27%.
Next is scenario 2 - a medium scenario with an average growth rate of GRDP forecasted at 5.48%/year in 2021 - 2025; average 8.66%/year in 2026 - 2030. In the whole period 2021 - 2030, an average of 7.06%/year. 2031 - 2050, the growth rate is expected to reach about 7.2 %/year.
From 2021 to 2030, TFP's contribution to growth will reach 50.9%; labor productivity growth averaged 6.4 %/year.
It is forecasted that by 2025, per capita income will reach about 205 million VND, equivalent to 8,400 USD/person; by 2030, it will reach about 345 million VND, equivalent to 13,000 USD; by 2050, reach 45,000 USD. Investment capital is expected to be about VND 12.3 million billion in 2021 - 2030, 2.3 times higher than in 2011 - 2020. The ratio of development investment capital to GRDP at current prices is about 28%.
And scenario 3 - the scenario strives for an average growth rate of GRDP of 5.97% from 2021 to 2025 (of which, three years from 2021 - 2023: 3.88%/year; two 2024-2025: 9.18%/year), the average rate of 10.2%/year in the period 2026 - 2030. In the whole period of 2021 - 2030, an average of 8.07%/year. 2031 - 2050, the growth rate is expected to reach about 7.6 %/year.
From 2021 to 2030, TFP's contribution to growth will reach 58.5%; labor productivity growth will average 7.4 %/year.
It is forecast that per capita income by 2025 will reach about 210 million VND, equivalent to 8,600 USD/person; by 2030, it will reach about 380 million VND, equivalent to 14,500 USD; by 2050 to reach 53,000 USD. It is expected to need an investment capital of about 15.8 million billion VND from 2021 to 2030, 3 times higher than 2011 - 2020. The ratio of development investment capital to GRDP at current prices is about 32%.
As the country's largest economic center, the Southeast region has a particularly important position and role in the nation's socio-economic development. In 2022, GRDP in the Southeast region will account for about 31% of the whole country; exports contribute about 35%; budget revenue accounts for about 38% of the whole country; The region's per capita GRDP is 1.64 times that of the whole country; the urbanization rate of the region is 66.5%, equal to 1.8 times the national average.
The growth goal of the South East region in the 2021 - 2030 period will be to develop the region sustainably, effectively and economically using resources associated with ecological environment protection and adaptation to climate change and sea level rise; at the same time, renew the growth model associated with restructuring the regional economy towards modernity, taking the digital economy, sharing economy, green economy, and circular economy as the focus and driving force for development.
Along with that, prioritizing the development of high-tech and high-quality service industries maximize internal resources for development, harmoniously combining with external resources for fast, sustainable development, self-reliance and deep international integration. To build the Southeast to become a civilized, modern, and internationally integrated region; improve the health, material and spiritual life of the people, especially low-income people; narrow the gap in development level between localities in the region…
