Toluca is set to face UNAM Pumas in an exciting matchup in the second round of Liga MX Apertura on July 22, 2026. The home team, Toluca, comes into this game with a significant advantage, having performed well in their opening match of the season.

According to ELO ratings, Toluca boasts a score of 86, while UNAM Pumas lags behind with a score of 81. This places Toluca at 101st in the global ELO rankings, significantly higher than UNAM Pumas, which sits at 399th. In the Mexican league standings, Toluca is currently ranked 2nd, while UNAM Pumas finds itself at the bottom in 9th place. The probability model suggests that Toluca has a 66.2% chance of winning, compared to just 15% for UNAM Pumas, with a draw estimated at 18.8%.

In their last match, Toluca secured a solid 2-0 victory against Guadalajara Chivas, showcasing their strong gameplay and defensive capabilities. This win not only earned them three points but also demonstrated their ability to keep a clean sheet, which is particularly encouraging given their mixed form in the lead-up to the season. Previously, they had drawn 3-3 with Atlante, lost 0-1 to Cancun, and suffered a 0-2 defeat against Pachuca. However, their performance in the official league match indicates that they have regained focus.

On the other hand, UNAM Pumas had a disappointing start to the season, suffering a heavy 0-3 loss to Pachuca, which placed them at the bottom of the table after the first round. This defeat marks their second consecutive loss, including a 0-1 defeat to America de Cali in a friendly match. The Pumas have struggled offensively, failing to score in their last two matches. Their inconsistency has been a major concern, despite a prior 3-0 win over Cancun. Against a confident Toluca, UNAM Pumas will need to tighten their defense to avoid another defeat.

In terms of recent form, Toluca has won 2, drawn 1, and lost 2 of their last five matches, including a victory on penalties against Tigres UANL. Their recent performance in Liga MX has been promising. In contrast, UNAM Pumas has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five outings. Their offensive struggles have been evident, and they will need to find a way to break through Toluca's defense if they hope to turn their season around.

Historically, Toluca has had the upper hand in their recent encounters with UNAM Pumas, remaining unbeaten in their last five meetings, with two wins and three draws. The last match between the two teams ended in a 3-2 victory for Toluca.

Given their home advantage, better form, and a strong head-to-head record, Toluca is expected to win this match. The predicted scoreline is Toluca 2, UNAM Pumas 0.