The highly anticipated match between Canada and Morocco in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2026 is scheduled for midnight on July 5 at NRG Stadium in the United States. As the host nation, Canada has made history by advancing past the group stage for the first time and winning their first knockout match against South Africa with a score of 1-0.

However, Canada faces a formidable opponent in Morocco, which is currently favored to win the match. According to predictions from the Opta supercomputer, Canada has only a 21.7% chance of victory, while Morocco's chances stand at 52.7%. The probability of the match ending in a draw after 90 minutes is estimated at 25.6%. Morocco also has a 65.7% likelihood of advancing to the next round, compared to Canada's 34.3%.

Morocco's journey in this tournament has been impressive, having recently defeated the Netherlands in a thrilling match that went to penalties after a 1-1 draw. This victory marked Morocco's ongoing rise as a competitive force in international football, having advanced from the knockout stages in 6 out of their last 8 major tournaments.

Despite their underdog status, Canada has shown adaptability and resilience. Under the guidance of coach Jesse Marsch, the team averaged 61% possession in the group stage, although they played more conservatively against South Africa, controlling the ball for only 42% of the match. This strategic shift indicates Canada's willingness to play defensively when necessary.

The historical context of the matchup reveals that this will be the fifth encounter between Canada and Morocco, with Canada yet to secure a victory in their previous four meetings (one draw and three losses). In their last World Cup meeting in 2022, Morocco triumphed over Canada with a score of 2-1.

In terms of squad news, Canada will be without Ismael Kone due to a serious injury, while Morocco reports no significant losses. The expected lineups for the match are as follows:

• Canada: Crepeau, Johnston, Cornelius, Bombito, Laryea, Eustaquio, Buchanan, Millar, Saliba, David, Oluwaseyi.
• Morocco: Bono, Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazroui, Bouaddi, El Aynaoui, Brahim, Ounahi, El Khannous, Saibari.

As the match approaches, predictions lean towards a narrow victory for Morocco, with a final score forecast of Canada 1 - 2 Morocco.