06.10.2020, 23:44

The real estate market has signs of recovery, how do house prices fluctuate?

According to the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, the real estate market has seen a remarkable recovery, the new supply and absorption rate of new products in the third quarter recorded an increase compared to the previous quarters.


The real estate market is showing signs of significant recovery. (Photo: Ha Vu)


The rate of housing real estate absorption in the third quarter increased sharply

Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association (VARS) has just released a report summarizing the market situation in the third quarter and the first 9 months of 2020.

According to statistics of this unit, in the third quarter of 2020, the whole country had 73,933 residential real estate (real estate) products sold on the market (including 46,773 apartments and 27,160 low-rise products). The absorption rate is 26,299 (35.5%), a significant increase compared to 7,641 products in the first quarter of 2020 and 12,640 products of the second quarter of 2020.

The real estate market has signs of recovery, how do house prices fluctuate?

Supply and volume of real estate transactions across the country in the first 9 months of the year. (Source: VARs)

The products offered for sale are mainly inventories from the previous quarters (accounting for about 70%). However, the new supply in this quarter increased by 21% compared to the first quarter and 23% compared to the second quarter of 2020.

The absorption rate of new products in the quarter reached 43.4%, an increase of nearly 4 times compared to the first quarter and 1.4 times compared to the second quarter of 2020.


“The real estate market has recovered significantly, the absorption rate of new products has increased compared to the previous quarter”, said the Brokerage Association.

Particularly in the Hanoi market, the total supply offered for sale in the third quarter of 2020 reached 13,300 products (mainly apartments), the absorption rate reached 22.3%. The prices of the mid-end and high-end segments continued to almost go sideways, while the affordable segment increased slightly by about 3-5%.

Generally, in the first 9 months of 2020, in Hanoi, there were 7,989 new apartment products to be offered to the market, only in the third quarter of 2020 there were only 2,486 products, transactions reached 872 products.

In which, the affordable apartment segment continues to account for a small proportion in the supply structure but has a relatively good absorption rate (23%). The supply of new high-end apartments to the market is also very limited because the absorption rate of this segment is at a very low level (about 10%).

In the HCMC market, according to VARs, the total number of products offered for sale in the whole market in the third quarter of 2020 reached 12,530 products (mainly apartments), the absorption rate reached 75%.

Regarding new supply, in the first 9 months of 2020, the HCMC apartment market recorded 14,286 products offered to the market. In which, the third quarter recorded 7,197 products, the transaction volume reached 95%.

Notably, in the new supply structure, affordable apartments continue to appear in the market. The selling price of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City in the third quarter of 2020 increased sharply by 15-20% compared to the previous quarter, creating a fever for the real estate market.


Property prices will not fluctuate

According to VARs, at present, real estate prices are facing many pressures. Specifically, apartment prices in big cities have been pushed to the ceiling level, even a little bubble, especially in the high-end apartment segment, leading to slow consumption rates.

In addition, many projects that use high leverage, are pressured to recover capital to pay debts, and apply promotional policies and high value gifts.

In addition, land in previously hot developed regions has increased sharply, even exceeding the real market value threshold. In the recent period, most projects have to adjust accordingly, to pull the market demand back.

This unit forecasts that, in the fourth quarter of 2020, if Vietnam can completely control the epidemic, the domestic economy recovers, has positive growth, the real estate market will be warm and recover.

Besides, the scarcity of new sources of goods in big cities will continue. And in other localities, the source of goods to the market mainly comes from previously implemented projects. Newly approved projects will also be deployed more when localities stabilize their organizational structure after the Party Congress.

“The amount of transactions, the consumption rate on the market will increase compared to the third quarter of 2020. Along with that, the price of the whole market will not fluctuate”, the brokerage association forecasted.

Besides, at the end of the year, the phenomenon of land hunting among people in areas where information is rumored will tend to increase. This inadvertently creates unorthodox transactions and can create real estate bubbles.

“The wave of investment and shopping at the end of the year will likely have a positive impact on the national real estate market. Local, especially investors, real estate trading floors need to have timely policies to attract and exploit effectively “, recommended VARs.

Source: vietnambiz.vn – Translated by fintel.vn