Vietnam GDP growth forecast in 2020 remains highest in Asia: IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth at 2.7% in 2020, the highest in Asia, and the pace is expected to speed up to 7% in 2021.
Vietnam’s consumer price index is set at 3.2%, lower than the estimation of 4% this year. The economy could be subject to a strong rebound of 7% GDP growth rate in 2021.
Notably, in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update, Thailand’s economic growth forecast has been revised down to -7.7%, one percentage point lower than the organization’s previous forecast in April, the largest contraction among Asian economies.
The average growth forecast for ASEAN–5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam) would record a contraction of 2% in 2020, before rebounding to 6.2% in 2021.
As the Covid-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below IMF’s previous forecast.
Major economies, including the US, China and Japan have all received a lower forecast in this update outlook, in which the US is predicted to shrink 8% (previously -5.9%), China with a positive growth of 1% (previously 1.2%), and Japan with -5.8% (previously -5.2%).
The outlook is even more gloomy for European countries, as Italy and Spain are subject to the deepest contraction of 12.8%, followed by France with -12.5% and Germany with -7.8%.
In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4%. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s, stated the IMF.
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